How I Learned to Think About Probability, Value, and Better Odds Analysis
When I first started looking at sports odds, I thought the goal was simple: find winners.
I couldn't have been more wrong.
I spent most of my time searching for predictions, opinions, and confident takes. If someone sounded certain, I paid attention. If a number looked attractive, I assumed it offered an opportunity. Looking back, I realize I was focusing on outcomes instead of...